The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.47% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.73% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia. In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Pakistan’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 6.74%, while its share of production is Estimated at 7.55%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
BMI forecasts that Pakistan’s real GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2011, with an average annual increase of 3.24% forecast for 2011-2015. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of 57,500b/d by 2015, with the country able to pump around 67,200b/d in 2011. Consumption beyond 2010 is forecast to increase by around 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 444,900b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 387,400b/d by 2015. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 39.5bcm in 2011 to 44.8bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 2.8bcm.
Between 2011 and 2020, we forecast a decrease in Pakistani oil production of 39.5%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 40,680b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 18.8%, with growth slowing to 1.5-2% per annum during the period and the country using 488,080b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 39.5bcm in 2010 to a possible 48.0bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 37.7%, this will require imports rising to 6.4bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Pakistan is now ranked in 10th place in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table. It ranks sixth, above Malaysia and Papua New Guinea, in the updated upstream ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country now sits just one point behind Thailand, but is unlikely to make further progress over the medium term. Pakistan ranks joint 10th, alongside Malaysia, in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its refinery capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity.
Business Monitor International's Pakistan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's oil and gas industry.
(Business Monitor International, Sep 2011, Pages: 83)